From Vietnam to Afghanistan: why Obama will send more troops to fight an unwinnable war

Daniel Ellsberg, the military advisor who leaked the Pentagon Papers about the Vietnam war, which eventually lead to the downfall of President Richard Nixon, explains why Barack Obama will send more troops to fight a war he knows cannot be won and why he will not withdraw from Afghanistan, even though he knows it would be in America's best interests.

This is a must watch video because no one is better placed than Daniel Ellsberg in drawing parallels between the wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan.

In 1971, as a senior military advisor to President Nixon's administration, he leaked what became known as the Pentagon Papers, which showed that the government and the US military lied to the American people to continue fighting the Vietnam war -- at horrific cost in both Vietnamese and American lives -- because they could not face admitting that it was lost.

Courage

Ellsberg's courage, which he knew under US law could lead to life imprisonment, galvanised the US anti-war movement and eventually lead to Watergate and the impeachment of Richard Nixon.

Ellsberg says that, like Nixon, Barack Obama will have seen irrefutable evidence that the war in Afghanistan cannot be won and he will know that the interests of America would be best served by withdrawing all troops from the country. But, says Ellsberg, he will not do what is best for the country, but what he perceives is best for him and his party politically -- facing Congressional elections in 2010. Above all he will aim to avoid a revolt by military leaders, in which he is accused by of weakness and failing to back the army in a winnable war.

This is why Ellsberg concludes that there will be a second Obama surge, which will send tens of thousands more US troops with the only purpose of showing that there will be no withdrawal from Afghanistan. This will happen even though Obama knows -- because all the briefing papers will have told him -- that at least 600,000 troops would be needed to pacify a population resisting occupation and to achieve anything which could in any way be termed a "victory".