It looks as if the Ukraine war endgame has begun, but that will not be the end of conflict in Europe. Volodymir Zelensky told Sky News that he was willing to give up territory in the east, already occupied by Russia, in exchange for the unoccupied parts (most of the country) becoming part of Nato. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson has bemoaned the fact that not enough weapons have been sent to Ukraine, this week telling the Telegraph,
“It has been pathetic… Let’s face it: We’re waging a proxy war but not giving our proxies the ability to do the job. For years now, we’ve been allowing them to fight with one hand tied behind their backs, and it has been cruel.”
As so often Johnson has blurted out what the pro-war hawks have been denying for the entire length of the Ukraine conflict: it is proxy war and not simply one of national liberation by Ukraine. This lie has helped prolong a war – and boost the rearmament of Europe – at great cost to the Ukrainian people. It also makes for many difficulties and contradictions for those keenest on backing this proxy war. All the talk of arming Ukraine has been put in the most high-flown terms about promoting democracy, defending the self determination of small nations, resisting dictatorship and aggression. Keir Starmer and France’s Emmanuel Macron joined together only last month on the anniversary of the end of the First World War to declare that they would stick with Ukraine “for as long as it takes.”
What despicable cynics these people are. The truth is that Donald Trump’s election has forced the Nato powers to look reality in the face and to begin to comprehend that Ukraine is losing the war, that the use of US, British and French missiles in Russian territory will not change the overall direction of the war, and that at some point there will be negotiations. This is a bitter pill for the European warmongers to swallow, given that they distrust and fear Trump and have built up a narrative that Putin is likely to attack across Europe, but swallow it they will.
Zelensky is desperately trying to get a favourable deal with Trump and therefore is flagging it up as one possible solution. But given that Nato is already effectively protecting Ukraine and that one of Putin’s main points of opposition is to Ukraine joining Nato, it is unlikely to pan out that way. Zelensky also has to deal with the growing unpopularity of the war and the discontent among troops. The Financial Times reports that in the first ten months of this year, prosecutors opened 60,000 cases against army deserters, twice as many as in the previous two years. The conditions on the front are horrific, with soldiers lacking equipment, sufficient manpower, or any break in their tours of duty.
That’s what 3 years of war has brought: hundreds of thousands dead and injured on both sides and a slow, grinding war of attrition.
Meanwhile Sweden, which recently joined Nato, has issued a booklet to its citizens about civil defence, and Germany is giving advice to its citizens about bunkers and air raid shelters. It seems to have escaped them all that the war in Ukraine – supposedly in defence of Europe – has worsened this situation, not improved it. People like Johnson thought they could defeat Russia or at least severely weaken Putin, which is why they scuppered peace talks early on in the war. Their only result has been to greatly increase instability and conflict in the region. There is also the threat of the missile war escalating into nuclear war. Any peace will effectively be partition, and the region will remain one of the most heavily armed in the world.
The long-term consequences of imperialist wars are still being played out in the Middle East. The ceasefire in Lebanon is at the behest of the US and resolves nothing over Israel’s attacks on the Lebanese or the Palestinians. What’s happening in Gaza and the West Bank is effectively annexation of the occupied territories. This is carried out under the noses of complicit governments in the west – witness the claim by David Lammy that there are no journalists in Gaza. Now the war in Syria is flaring up again.
On both fronts, those of us in the western imperialist heartlands must keep organising. The 22nd national demo for Palestine in London on Saturday was very big, with new groups coming on it for the first time. We must build the movement against war in Ukraine and between nuclear powers. Next Saturday there’s a day of action alongside CND, with protests across the country. Do join us.
Source: Counterfire
