In more bad news for prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, already wanted for war crimes in 124 countries, most Israelis think that their army has not defeated Hezbollah in Lebanon.
As a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah began today the Israeli Channel 13 News conducted a poll which revealed that 61 percent of Israelis believe that Israel has not defeated Hezbollah. Only 26 percent of Israelis think that they won.
Even so, more Israelis, 44 percent, support the ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah than oppose it. That figure stands at 38 percent. A full two thirds of Israelis also want the war in Gaza to end as long as the hostages held by Hamas are returned.
Israelis from the north were clearly unhappy. Nahariya resident Levana Karsenti said, ‘What do I say? That it’s very bad, real bad. They did nothing and our soldiers were wasted away for nothing. Bibi (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu) should pack himself out of the government quickly’.
Lebanese, including Hezbollah supporters, welcomed the ceasefire. Lebanese began to return to the south of their country, despite the fact that under the terms of the ceasefire the Israeli army has 60 days to get back over its northern border.
Some Lebanese were sceptical about drawing early conclusions about what the ceasefire would mean. A Beirut resident said: ‘We are now watching, following if the ceasefire will be implemented, if everyone is going to commit to the ceasefire. Until now there’s nothing, it’s all talking, those said ‘ok’ and those said ‘ok’, planes were still bombing…What do we do? Everyone is pending now.’
The ceasefire requires Hezbollah forces to stay north of the Litani river, about 20 miles north of the Israeli border. Regular Lebanese Army and UN forces will secure the area between the border and the Litani. The whole deal will be monitored by a five nation committee, chaired by the US.
This is essentially a return to the previous arrangement brokered by the UN after Israel’s 2006 invasion of Lebanon. But that was never fully implemented and Hezbollah forces did not retreat north of the Litani. Whether this deal will be more fully implemented remains to be seen.
Outgoing President Joe Biden announced the ceasefire but the agreement was negotiated with President-elect Donald Trump’s team being kept informed at every stage. Trump new government appointees were quick to claim that it was the prospect of a Trump presidency that got the deal across the finish line.
They were also insistent that this deal cleared the decks for a renewed offensive against Iran, arguing that it was the scale of Trump’s election victory that had frightened the Iranian regime into signing off on the deal, which they assume would have been necessary for Hezbollah’s participation.
Mike Waltz, Trump’s new National Security Advisor said, ‘But let’s be clear: The Iran Regime is the root cause of the chaos & terror that has been unleashed across the region. We will not tolerate the status quo of their support for terrorism’.
Israel certainly was not getting any easy victory on the ground in southern Lebanon, and the war was unpopular with Israelis. But Hezbollah had equally obviously suffered significant losses.
The danger is that, with the Iranian regime playing a familiar cautious hand, that the path is cleared for an even more aggressive anti-Iran policy to be adopted by Trump, concentrating on the main regional rival to US hegemony.
